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【iPhone\(^o^)/】iPhone6sが売れなさ過ぎワロタ←「0円」商法が行き詰まる

公開日: :   経済

1: 海江田三郎 ★ 2016/01/15(金) 18:10:17.41 ID:CAP_USER.net
   国内スマートフォン(スマホ)市場が成長の踊り場を迎えている。一人勝ちだった米アップルですらも無縁ではない。2015年9月発売の最新モデル「iPhone 6s/6s Plus」は、前モデルと比べ25%減と急ブレーキ。旧機種を含めても2ケタ減に落ち込んだ。一部報道では「最新機種を3割減産」などとされ、変調もささやかれる。一体何が起こっているのか。
 「iPhone 6sは5万円相当のポイント還元、iPhone 6は一括0円に4万円相当のポイント還元です。このお値段で案内できるのは今だけですよ。お見逃しなく!」――。晴れ着姿の新成人も目立つ1月11日。3連休とあって、ある東京近郊の家電量販店は大勢の来店客でにぎわっていた。中でも携帯電話の契約カウンターには、久しぶりに順番待ちの列ができていた。
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■発売後3カ月の販売台数、旧機種より25.9%減
 「このところ大きな動きがなかったのでうれしい。ただいつまで持つか…」。大手通信キャリア関係者は危機感をあらわにする。無理もない。2015年秋に登場したiPhoneの最新機種「iPhone 6s」「同 6s Plus」が思ったように売れず、年末まで厳しい戦いを強いられていたからだ。一時的な盛り上がりだけで素直に喜ぶわけにはいかない。
 市場調査会社のBCN(東京都千代田区)の主要家電量販店を対象とした実売データ調査結果にもその様子が刻まれている。iPhone 6s/6s Plusの発売後3カ月(13週間)の販売台数は、2014年9月に発売した旧機種に比べて25.9%減。スマホ全体では販売台数が8.7%減で踏みとどまっており、iPhone 6s/6s Plusの不振が際立つ。
 週次の販売状況をグラフでみると、実は発売1週目(2015年9月21~27日)から変調している実態が浮かび上がってくる。旧機種のiPhone 6/6 Plusの発売1週目(2014年9月15~21日)の実績に届いていないのだ。さらに3週目(2015年10月5~11日)以降は、2代前のiPhone 5s/5cの実績すら下回って推移している。主要家電量販店における、iPhone最新機種の発売後3カ月(13週)の実売データを指数化したもの。iPhone 6s/6s Plusは、過去の製品の発売時を下回る販売状況となっている。

■平均買い換え期間は約2年から2年半に
 逆風となっている原因は主に3つある。第1は、スマホの普及が進み、市場全体が頭打ちになっていることだ。
 日経BPコンサルティングの調査によると、国内のスマホ普及率は2014年7月の36.9%から2015年7月には49.7%へ伸びた。2人に1人がスマホを持つようになったのだ。KDDI(au)による年代別の調査では、10~30代のスマホ普及率は80%前後であり、40代も60%を超えている。従来型携帯電話からの買い換え需要が、以前ほどは望めなくなりつつある。
 しかもここ1~2年は、バッテリーの持ちや通信速度の遅さなどに対するユーザーの不満も落ち着き、すでにスマホを使う利用者の買い換え需要が減退している。NTTドコモとKDDI(au)はそれぞれ「スマホの平均買い換え期間は従来は約2年だったが、2年半程度へ延びている」とぼやく。
 第2の理由は、iPhoneの本体価格の上昇だ。例えばソフトバンクは、iPhone 6sの16GBモデルの本体価格を9万3600円に設定した。購入後24カ月適用される割引を差し引いた実質負担額は1万5552円(発売時点のMNP価格。以下同じ)となった。旧機種iPhone 6の16GBモデルは本体価格は7万80円で、実質負担額は0円だったから大幅に跳ね上がったことになる。円安の進行などやむを得なかった面はあるものの、大幅な値上がりを利用者が敬遠した可能性は高い。11週目以降で販売が多少盛り返しているが、年末商戦を迎えポイント還元や商品券による販促の積み増しがあったほか、「総務省で携帯電話の販売方法の見直しに関する議論が進んだことで、駆け込み需要が喚起された」(BCNの道越一郎チーフエグゼクティブアナリスト)おかげにすぎない。
 モデル別内訳でも、消費者の迷いが見て取れる。iPhone 6s/6s Plusでは、128GBモデルを買う消費者の比率が旧機種より減少している(グラフ2)。ソフトバンクの128GBモデルの実質負担額は、iPhone 6sが5万1480円、iPhone 6s Plusは6万4320円。これほどの負担を負ってまで128GBを選ぶ消費者はさすがに限られたようだ。iPhone各製品の発売後3カ月における、モデル別の販売台数の構成比。iPhone 6s/6s Plusでは、16GBモデルから64GBモデルへの移行は進んだものの、128GBへの移行は進まず逆に比率が減少している。

■新機種の魅力が薄すぎる?
 第3の理由は、iPhone 6s/6s Plusの発売後も旧機種の販売が続き、新味の少ない新機種より相対的に割安な旧機種へ需要が流れたことだ。BCNによる週次の実売データで、「iPhone最新機種」と「旧機種を含めたiPhone全体」の数値を比較するとその様子がよく分かる。各年のiPhone新製品と、旧機種を含む「iPhone全体」の販売状況の比較。iPhone 6s/6s Plusでは、年末商戦が本格化する12月になっても旧機種の販売が続いていたことがうかがえる。
 例年は、発売当初こそ旧機種への引き合いが一定数あるものの、徐々に旧機種の在庫が減り「iPhone最新機種」と「iPhone全体」の2本の折れ線が接近していく。ところがiPhone 6s/6s Plusでは、2本の折れ線が発売当初から大きく離れたまま推移。年末商戦に入った12~13週目にはむしろ差が広がっている。
 家電量販店の店頭では「iPhone 6最終処分」などと書かれたPOP(店頭販促)が未だに大々的に張られている。旧機種の在庫がだぶついていたと考えるのが自然だろう。旧機種は本体価格が0円のうえ数万円のポイントや商品券が付く、いわゆる「一括0円」。多くの消費者が新色・新機能より安さを重視し旧機種を選んだ可能性が高い。
 前年割れを記録したとはいえ、現時点では深刻な「iPhone離れ」が起きているわけではないようだ。BCNの実売データによると、スマホ全体に占めるiPhoneのシェアは、2014年9~12月は67.9%、2015年9~12月は64.6%。微減傾向ながら、依然として3分の2前後がiPhone。競合他社を大きく引き離している。
 ただ、今後も盤石かといえばそうとも言い切れない。足元では「格安SIM」と呼ばれるMVNOの契約数が急増。市場調査会社のMM総研(東京都港区)によると、2014年9月末の230.5万回線から2015年9月末には405.8万回線へと、1年間の増加率は76.1%にも達する。
 格安SIMブームに乗り、台湾エイスーステック・コンピューターや中国ファーウェイ・テクノロジーズなどが実売価格3万円台のAndroid中位機種を積極的に投入しており、引き合いも強い。
 今後懸念される逆風もある。販売奨励金の削減だ。高市早苗総務相は2015年12月、大手通信キャリア3社に対し携帯電話の料金体系の見直しを要請しており、一環として端末が「実質0円」で販売されるような多額の販売奨励金をやめるよう求めている。これまで多額のキャッシュバックで実質負担額を抑えてきたiPhoneは、今回の要請で実質負担額を値上げせざるを得なくなる。

■求められる次の「アップルマジック」
 KDDIとソフトバンクの首脳は1月12日にそれぞれ開催した発表会で、販売奨励金を段階的に削減する方針を表明している。
 「代理店や端末メーカーにどういう影響が出るか分からない。ある日突然ドカンとキャッシュバックをやめるとみんなが不幸になるので、徐々に販売奨励金を減額して、急激な変化にならないようにしたい」(KDDIの田中孝司社長)。「『iPhoneが10万円です』となったら買ってもらえないと思うが、そこは知恵の使い方だと思う。官製不況に一気になるような形ではなく、リーズナブルなディスカウントは継続していくべきだと思っている」(ソフトバンクの宮内謙社長)。
 逆風を吹き飛ばすには、今年投入する予定の次世代モデルで再び「驚き」を消費者に提供する必要がありそうだ。「2016年に発売が見込まれる『iPhone 7』や、ラインアップ追加が噂される4型液晶ディスプレイ搭載のiPhoneの出来が成否を握る。これら次期モデルの出来次第では、iPhoneの販売が失速する可能性もある」(BCNの道越氏)。
 初代モデル発売から8年半が経過したiPhone。米国などに比べて高いシェアを日本では維持し続けきたが、2016年は海外市場並みにシェアが落ち込むかどうか試練の年になると言えよう。過去に消費者が何度も熱狂したような「アップルマジック」は再現できるのか。「実質0円」頼みではなく、商品力で勝負できなければ、足元で強まる向かい風の克服は難しいだろう。
http://itpro.nikkeibp.co.jp/atcl/column/14/090100053/011200111/

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3: 名刺は切らしておりまして 2016/01/15(金) 18:11:40.17 ID:ZKo9Lps4.net
信者専用

4: 名刺は切らしておりまして 2016/01/15(金) 18:15:07.25 ID:5o7qtmKk.net
ゼロ円とマスコミ買収に踊らされたバカ

5: 名刺は切らしておりまして 2016/01/15(金) 18:17:45.33 ID:F8/JGilq.net
乗るしかない このビックウェーブに
wwww

7: 名刺は切らしておりまして 2016/01/15(金) 18:22:49.11 ID:dKjqL3+W.net
iPhone目当てじゃなくてキャッシュバック目当てだからなw

10: 名刺は切らしておりまして 2016/01/15(金) 18:26:10.93 ID:cWeQm1gu.net
最新

GFK ケータイ売れ筋ランキング
2016年 1月4日~1月10日

1位 iPhone6
2位 iPhone6s
3位 iPhone6s
4位 iPhone6
5位 iPhone6s
6位 iPhone6
7位 iPhone6s
8位 iPhone6s
9位 DINGO C
10位 iPhone6

BCN 携帯電話売れ筋ランキング
2016年 1月4日~1月10日

1位 iPhone6s
2位 iPhone6s
3位 iPhone6
4位 iPhone6s
5位 iPhone6
6位 iPhone6
7位 iPhone6s
8位 iPhone6s
9位 iPhone6
10位 Xperia Z5

16: 名刺は切らしておりまして 2016/01/15(金) 18:37:18.95 ID:SD9j7Jwq.net
>>10
日本の市場の問題だな

19: 名刺は切らしておりまして 2016/01/15(金) 18:38:46.61 ID:oS5x3OLF.net
>>10
ランキングなのになんでiphone6とipohone6sが何個もあんの

24: 名刺は切らしておりまして 2016/01/15(金) 18:43:46.92 ID:5o7qtmKk.net
>>19
買収されてるから

38: 名刺は切らしておりまして 2016/01/15(金) 18:57:33.18 ID:dCRz1mqs.net
>>19
iphone6 16gb(ドコモ)
iphone6 64gb(ドコモ)
iphone6 128gb(ドコモ)
iphone6 16gb(AU)
iphone6 64gb(AU)
iphone6 128gb(AU)
iphone6 16gb(SB)
iphone6 64gb(SB)
iphone6 128gb(SB)

こう分けても他メーカーの本気機種より売れている

48: 名刺は切らしておりまして 2016/01/15(金) 19:24:51.48 ID:W0L8zBxH.net
>>10
iPhoneも売れ行き落ちてるがAndroidはそれ以上に不振ということか。
Xperiaとか以前は2~3機種くらいTOP10に常駐してたのにな。

12: 名刺は切らしておりまして 2016/01/15(金) 18:29:52.94 ID:3Qt6ptCi.net
もう市場が飽和しただろ。

最近の商品は旬が短くて大変だな。

13: 名刺は切らしておりまして 2016/01/15(金) 18:33:56.30 ID:UN/jnzeI.net
格安SIMすごい

15: 名刺は切らしておりまして 2016/01/15(金) 18:36:41.39 ID:k93AHAc4.net
国内市場においては貧乏人御用達のiPhoneはこれからどうなるのか…

18: 名刺は切らしておりまして 2016/01/15(金) 18:38:25.79 ID:fiRRLzpT.net
ギャラクチョンに頼っているサムチョンも売り上げ減で四苦八苦!

21: 名刺は切らしておりまして 2016/01/15(金) 18:40:40.40 ID:TqYGIuhZ.net
今年の4月ぐらいからは、総務省のせいでいきなり端末価格8万円とかになって、携帯販売激減するんじゃないか。

そして2万円ぐらいのsimフリーのミドル機種が少し売れるようになって、部品メーカーは売上30%ダウン。

25: 名刺は切らしておりまして 2016/01/15(金) 18:43:48.09 ID:2//gTCtR.net
あんな商品安くないと売れないよ

26: 名刺は切らしておりまして 2016/01/15(金) 18:43:50.11 ID:pEgpWIK5.net
モノを売るんじゃ儲かるのはその時だけ。

たとえばクルマを売ればガソリン代が将来永劫に儲かる。

プリンターを売れば毎月のように高いインク代が儲かる。

このような商品は何かないだろうか?

42: 名刺は切らしておりまして 2016/01/15(金) 19:16:29.82 ID:i3EgHUk9.net
>>26
近年はゲームが課金、オンライン、DLCなんかでそんな感じかな
FF11なんか13年も遊んでるユーザーが万単位でいるし

昔のゲームは売れたら終わりだったけど
今はユーザーの手に渡ってからが稼ぎ時みたいな

27: 名刺は切らしておりまして 2016/01/15(金) 18:44:11.78 ID:ap+ga/NH.net
バッテリー以外はもう充分進化した
バッテリーがさらに進化したとしてもたとえば端末が10万円超えてきたら機種変更してくれるかどうか
カメラもスマホに取りつけるタイプとしてはこの辺が限界じゃないの?

28: 名刺は切らしておりまして 2016/01/15(金) 18:46:32.97 ID:lrdNrVi0.net
去年一括0円+cb2万で6貰ってきたけど
大きすぎるし、なんか滑る

外観5のままにすりゃ良かったのに

29: 名刺は切らしておりまして 2016/01/15(金) 18:46:59.19 ID:yXnef8rA.net
昔はオツムの弱い若者は無理して見栄張って高級車に乗ってたけど、いまはiphoneなのな。

32: 名刺は切らしておりまして 2016/01/15(金) 18:49:05.23 ID:Hk+wFFHX.net
> 売れないiPhone、国内販売25%減 行き詰まる「0円」商法

スマホもいよいよ頭打ちになって来たってことだろ。

34: 名刺は切らしておりまして 2016/01/15(金) 18:52:09.06 ID:KpbyVaFa.net
これからは3年1サイクルになるだろう
途中で電池交換1回すればいい

35: 名刺は切らしておりまして 2016/01/15(金) 18:54:26.62 ID:22tAn4bl.net
画面割れても、そのまま使ってる奴が多いし
それだけ金無い奴が多いってこった。

37: 名刺は切らしておりまして 2016/01/15(金) 18:57:32.84 ID:/jV9rPle.net
日本の部品メーカーの中にはiPhone需要に頼ってたところかなりあるからな
これはたいへんかも

44: 名刺は切らしておりまして 2016/01/15(金) 19:17:56.39 ID:YXRRqNYF.net
iphoneが10万円になったらもう買わない
たぶんSIMフリーのファーウェイ買う

59: 名刺は切らしておりまして 2016/01/15(金) 19:39:08.29 ID:UN/jnzeI.net
>>44
ASUS(台湾)のがいいぞ、なにも反日国家の中国製品好んで買う必要ないだろ
はぶけないもんでもないし

50: 名刺は切らしておりまして 2016/01/15(金) 19:27:26.46 ID:W0L8zBxH.net
iPhoneが売れてないんじゃなくてスマホ自体が売れなくなってきてるんだろうね。
2~3年前の機種なら買い換えの必要感じないものな。

55: 名刺は切らしておりまして 2016/01/15(金) 19:30:44.39 ID:MQ1RK2X4.net
>>50
1、2年前とかは3GからLTEへの過渡期だったりしたから買い替え需要があったけど
もうそこまで劇的に変化するような要素ないもんな

56: 名刺は切らしておりまして 2016/01/15(金) 19:32:26.77 ID:BSU2AyAQ.net
「どうせ見た目変わらんからファーウェイやシャオミにしようぜ」

日本人のメンタルじゃないなw

60: 名刺は切らしておりまして 2016/01/15(金) 19:40:24.30 ID:HS9DbL8f.net
iPhoneふざけて高すぎ。

61: 名刺は切らしておりまして 2016/01/15(金) 19:40:26.43 ID:Z32fuZCp.net
確かに通勤電車のiPhone率は減ってると思う。
少し前までは女=iPhoneだたけど、最近違うね。Xperiaが多い。
でも大久保から乗ってくるエラ関係はサムチョンだわ。

65: 名刺は切らしておりまして 2016/01/15(金) 19:43:10.19 ID:7SqumN/+.net
Androidが中国製でもかなり快適に使える仕上がりになってる。金がなければAndroidにうつるには十分なレベルになってる。

71: 名刺は切らしておりまして 2016/01/15(金) 19:47:39.30 ID:MOyxfjzS.net
そんなにどんどん買い替えないよねー

引用元: 【スマホ】売れないiPhone、国内販売25%減 行き詰まる「0円」商法

  
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2018.10.13 Sat
【JRAで前代未聞の珍事】山田敬士騎手が2番人気馬に騎乗して走行距離誤認 1周目ゴール目前でムチ連打→ウイニングラン→錯誤に気付くもボロ負け→騎乗停止www



2018.09.30 Sun
【懲戒覚悟のリーク】クロネコヤマト中の人がブラックっぷりをツイートwwwww



2018.09.19 Wed
【人体実験】ZOZOTOWNの前澤友作社長、米スペースXの宇宙船で月へ



2018.09.18 Tue
【訃報】格闘家の山本KID徳郁(41)が死去 前月にがん闘病公表



2018.09.17 Mon
【訃報】女優・樹木希林さん(75)が死去 全身がん公表で過酷な闘病生活も



2018.09.17 Mon
【天才子役】女優の志田未来(25)さんが結婚 相手は一般人(大手証券会社勤務)で神木隆之介じゃなかった



2018.09.17 Mon
【#MeToo】池上彰の意見パクリ問題「いけがMeToo」運動に発展 有識者から被害報告が続々



2018.09.17 Mon
【嫌なら見るな】フジテレビ「とんねるず」と「めちゃイケ」から視聴者が離れた理由wwww



2018.09.16 Sun
【今夜はたっぷりイニエスタ】浦和レッズ・槙野智章がNHKBSのイニエスタ中継を痛烈批判にお前が言うなと炎上wwww



2018.09.16 Sun
【飲酒ひき逃げ酔っしー】元モーニング娘・吉澤ひとみ容疑者、ドラレコに被害者を豪快にはね飛ばす衝撃の瞬間が鮮明に映る

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